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Marie Curie Actions
Namarupa
Panta Rhei
statistical null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) based on the fallacious/invalid logic associated with p-values and fixed α-levels.
via Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations
Mindless statistical rituals in science
A critique of Fisherian p-values
"Few researchers are aware that their own heroes rejected what they practice routinely. Awareness of the origins of the ritual and of its rejection could cause a virulent cognitive dissonance, in addition to dissonance with editors, reviewers, and dear colleagues. Suppression of conflicts and contradicting information is in the very nature of this social ritual.”
(Gigerenzer, 2004, p. 592)
***
Gigerenzer, G. (2004). Mindless statistics. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 33(5), 587–606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2004.09.033
Raketenbasis 'Pydna' Kastellaun
Peruvian Amazon
This presentation focuses on the role of noncommutativity in visual/perceptual decision-making.
First, some historical background information is provided.
Then, the interrelated concepts of complementarity and superposition are briefly delineated and two paradigmatic visual illusions are demonstrated.
Next, several pertinent empirical results are discussed in the theoretical framework of quantum cognition.
Finally, the interdisciplinary scope of the topic will be adumbrated in the context of "cognitive innovation" (CogNovo).
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The Möbius band is an extraordinary geometrical figure. The band is eponymously named after the German mathematician August Ferdinand Möbius who described it in 1885, contemporaneously with another German mathematician named Johann Benedict Listing. It is a so called ruled surface with only one side and one boundary and it possesses the mathematical property of non-orientability (viz., a non-orientable manifold). In fact, the Möbius band is the simplest possible non-orientable surface. A Gedankenexperiment is helpful to understand this property intuitively: Imagine walking on the surface of a giant Möbius band. If you would travel long enough you would end up at the very starting point of the journey, only mirror-reversed. This journey can be repeated - ad infinitum. I argue that the Möbius band provides a reasily accessible metaphor for dual-aspect monism, a theory which challenges the predominant view that mind & matter (i.e., psyche & physis) are two fundamentally different substances. More information can be found on my eponymous websites.
Trace plot: In order to examine the representativeness of the MCMC samples, we first visually examine the trajectory of the chains. The trace plot indicates convergence on θ, i.e., the trace plot appears to be stationary because its mean and variance are not changing as a function of time.
Shrink factor (Brooks-Gelman-Rubin statistic). Theoretically, the larger the number of iterations T, the closer 𝑅 should approximate 1 (as T → ∞, 𝑅→ 1).
Autocorrelation (effective sample size/EES)
The density plot entails the 95% HDI and it displays the numerical value of the Monte Carlo Standard Error (MCSE) of 0.000454. The Monte Carlo Error (MCSE) is the uncertainty which can be attributed to the fact that the number of simulation draws is always finite. In other words, it provides a quantitative index that represents the quality of parameter estimates. The MCSE package in R provides convenient tools for computing Monte Carlo standard errors and the effective sample size (Gelman et al., 2004).
This animation which was created using R provides an intuitive explanation of what a 95% confidence interval really means: If we would repeat the exact same experiment 50 times, then 95 % of the time the 50 confidence intervals would contain the true mean. Visualisations are a powerful aid to understanding statistics. This makes sense from an evolutionary point of view as abstract symbolic cognition is phylogenetically much more recent than visual reasoning.
The American Psychological Association recommend confidence intervals as the "new statistics" in order to counteract the problems associuated with p-values. However, research clearly shows that confidence intervals are also widely misunderstood and they are therefore no real solution to the statistical crisis.
Out of 118 researcher only 3% were able to give the correct answer.
http://www.ejwagenmakers.com/inpress/HoekstraEtAlPBR.pdf
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MindMap
This is the flower of Albizia julibrissin, the Persian silk tree. I took this picture in 2016 in Plymouth, English Garden, Mount Edgcumbe. Not to be confused with Calliandra angustifolia aka. Bobinsana (a "healing plant" used in shamanism) which is in the Fabaceae family, too.
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The word psyche is etymologically derived from the ancient Greek ψυχή (psukhḗ, which translates into “mind/soul/spirit/breath”). The suffix "logia" (λογία) can be translated as "the study of" (cf. lógos/λόγος which can be be translated, inter alia, as "subject matter Hence, psychology literally means "the study of mind/soul/spirit/breath”. However, many psychologists are utterly nescient of this etymological definition and are not very comfortable with these profound philosophical concepts. There are some laudable exceptions, for instance, the Swiss depth-psychologist C.G. Jung who wrote extensively on Indian psychology and pranayama (viz., psycho-spiritual breathing-exercises). Jung also coined the terms introversion/extroversion which are today widely utilised in mainstream psychology (the 5-factor model of personality). It should be noted that there is no science without philosophy!The notion that science can be seperated from philosophy is a naïve positivistic illusion which completly neglects the history of science. Until quite recently science was philosophy. The terminological dichotomisation is a modern invention.Daniel Dennett formulated the following concise statement: “There is no such thing as philosophy-free science; there is only science whose philosophical baggage is taken on board without examination." — Daniel Dennett, Darwin's Dangerous Idea, 1995
